We analyzed 116 watches across 21 luxury brands — representing $2,344,985 in retail value — to answer the question every buyer asks but few can quantify: for every $1 you spend at retail, how much is that dollar worth on the secondary market?
By WatchValueScore Research · Data current as of February 21, 2026 · Methodology
1. Only 3 of 21 brands return more than $1 for every $1 spent at retail: Patek Philippe ($1.51), Rolex ($1.29), and Audemars Piguet ($1.19). The remaining 18 brands return between $0.74 and $0.93 per dollar.
2. The luxury watch market creates a net $407,565 in value above retail across our 116-watch dataset — but this gain is concentrated in just 43 watches (37%). The other 73 watches (63%) trade below their retail price.
3. Price tier is the strongest predictor of resale performance: 93% of watches priced above $50,000 trade above retail, versus 0% of watches under $5,000. The luxury watch market follows a "rich get richer" dynamic where the most expensive watches are also the safest investments.
4. Watch category matters more than most buyers realize: sport/luxury watches average +22% above retail, while pilot watches average -20%. Choosing the right type of watch within a brand is as important as choosing the right brand.
This study analyzes 116 current-production luxury watches across 21 brands. Retail prices are sourced from official brand price lists. Market prices are aggregated from public listings across major secondary market platforms (dealer listings, auction results, peer-to-peer marketplaces) using a 30-day rolling average. Each watch's market premium or discount is calculated as: (average market price ÷ retail MSRP – 1) × 100. Full methodology is available on our methodology page.
This analysis measures current market conditions only. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the luxury watch market is subject to economic cycles, brand management decisions, and shifts in consumer preference. This is not investment advice.
The "$1 Test" is simple: if you spend $1 at retail on a watch from each brand, how much is that dollar worth on the secondary market? A result above $1.00 means the watch has appreciated; below $1.00 means it has depreciated.
The results reveal a stark divide. The top three brands — Patek Philippe, Rolex, and Audemars Piguet — not only preserve value but actively generate it. A Patek Philippe buyer sees $1 become $1.51 on average, a 51% return. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table, brands like Hublot, Panerai, Piaget, and Bvlgari return just $0.74–$0.75 per dollar — a 25% loss from retail.
| # | Brand | Models | $1 Returns | Avg Premium | Above Retail | Below Retail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patek Philippe | 9 | $1.51 | +51.4% | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Rolex | 34 | $1.29 | +29.3% | 31 | 3 |
| 3 | Audemars Piguet | 6 | $1.19 | +19% | 4 | 2 |
| 4 | Vacheron Constantin | 4 | $1.02 | +1.7% | 2 | 2 |
| 5 | Tudor | 5 | $0.93 | -7.3% | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Cartier | 8 | $0.9 | -9.7% | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Grand Seiko | 3 | $0.89 | -11.4% | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | A. Lange & Söhne | 2 | $0.84 | -16.4% | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Omega | 11 | $0.83 | -16.6% | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | IWC | 4 | $0.83 | -16.7% | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Jaeger-LeCoultre | 4 | $0.82 | -18.2% | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Chopard | 1 | $0.81 | -19% | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | TAG Heuer | 5 | $0.81 | -19.4% | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | Breitling | 5 | $0.8 | -20.5% | 0 | 5 |
| 15 | Bell & Ross | 2 | $0.79 | -21% | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Blancpain | 3 | $0.79 | -21.3% | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Zenith | 2 | $0.78 | -22.5% | 0 | 2 |
| 18 | Hublot | 2 | $0.75 | -24.6% | 0 | 2 |
| 19 | Panerai | 3 | $0.75 | -25.4% | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Piaget | 2 | $0.74 | -25.8% | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Bvlgari | 1 | $0.74 | -26.4% | 0 | 1 |
The gap between top and bottom is enormous: Patek Philippe's $1.51 return versus Bvlgari's $0.74 means a $10,000 retail purchase results in either $15,100 or $7,400 in secondary market value — a $7,700 difference in outcome from the same initial spend. This data suggests that brand selection is the single highest-leverage decision a luxury watch buyer can make.
Of the 116 watches in our study, only 43 (37%) trade above their retail MSRP. The remaining 73 (63%) trade below retail. Yet the total market value exceeds total retail by $407,565 — meaning the gains from the appreciating minority more than offset the losses from the depreciating majority.
This concentration effect is important for buyers to understand. The "average" luxury watch depreciates. It is a specific subset — primarily Rolex steel sport models, Patek Philippe sport models, and select Audemars Piguet Royal Oak references — that creates the narrative that "luxury watches are good investments." For every Patek Nautilus gaining 140% above retail, there are multiple watches from other brands quietly losing 25-30%.
| Watch | Retail | Market | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A-001 | $52,070 | $125,000 | +140.1% ($72,930) |
| Patek Philippe Nautilus 5811/1G-001 | $69,830 | $150,000 | +114.8% ($80,170) |
| Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A-001 | $29,060 | $60,000 | +106.5% ($30,940) |
| Rolex Daytona 126506 | $82,700 | $150,000 | +81.4% ($67,300) |
| Rolex Daytona 126500LN | $15,500 | $27,500 | +77.4% ($12,000) |
| Watch | Retail | Market | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panerai Luminor PAM01312 | $8,900 | $6,500 | -27% (-$2,400) |
| Hublot Classic Fusion 542.NX.1171.RX | $7,600 | $5,500 | -27.6% (-$2,100) |
| Blancpain Villeret 6223-1127-55A | $11,800 | $8,500 | -28% (-$3,300) |
| Piaget Altiplano G0A43120 | $21,800 | $15,500 | -28.9% (-$6,300) |
| Audemars Piguet Code 11.59 15210OR.OO.A002CR.01 | $34,900 | $24,000 | -31.2% (-$10,900) |
Perhaps the most counterintuitive finding: the luxury watch market inverts normal consumer economics. In most product categories, more expensive items depreciate faster. In luxury watches, the opposite is true — the most expensive watches are the most likely to appreciate.
| Price Tier | Watches | Avg Premium | % Above Retail | Avg $1 Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $5K | 22 | -15.8% | 0% | $0.84 |
| $5K–$15K | 49 | -6.4% | 22% | $0.94 |
| $15K–$50K | 31 | +11.5% | 61% | $1.11 |
| $50K+ | 14 | +58% | 93% | $1.58 |
The data is stark: not a single watch under $5,000 trades above its retail price, while 93% of watches above $50,000 do. This creates a paradox for value-conscious buyers: the watches that feel "safer" because they cost less are actually the riskiest from a value preservation standpoint. A $150,000 Patek Nautilus is, by the data, a safer place for your money than a $3,000 TAG Heuer.
The implication for buyers is clear: if value preservation is a priority, allocating budget toward fewer, higher-tier watches is more effective than spreading it across multiple entry-level pieces. One Rolex Submariner will preserve more value than three TAG Heuer Carreras at the same total spend.
Beyond brand and price, the category of watch — dive, chronograph, dress, sport/luxury — has a significant impact on resale performance. Sport/luxury watches (the Nautilus, Royal Oak, Overseas category) average +22% above retail, while pilot watches average -20%. Within the same brand, choosing the right collection can mean the difference between appreciation and significant depreciation.
| Category | Count | Avg Price | Avg Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel | 4 | $18,875 | +53.2% |
| Classic | 2 | $9,250 | +49.4% |
| Sport | 27 | $38,635 | +22.2% |
| Complication | 2 | $37,250 | +20.8% |
| Chronograph | 14 | $26,214 | +7.9% |
| Haute Horlogerie | 2 | $158,750 | -1.3% |
| Dive | 25 | $12,838 | -3.1% |
| Dress | 30 | $15,675 | -9.1% |
| Jewelry/Dress | 1 | $4,600 | -11.5% |
| Pilot | 3 | $5,117 | -19.7% |
| Aviation | 1 | $3,600 | -21.7% |
| Dress/Sport | 5 | $8,330 | -22.3% |
The dominance of sport/luxury watches in resale value is a relatively recent phenomenon. The category was created in 1972 when Audemars Piguet launched the Royal Oak — a luxury steel watch designed by Gérald Genta. Fifty years later, this category has become the most desirable segment in the entire watch market, commanding premiums that dress watches and even complicated pieces cannot match.
The data supports several actionable conclusions for luxury watch buyers:
Focus on the three brands that return more than $1 per dollar (Patek Philippe, Rolex, Audemars Piguet), specifically their sport/luxury and steel sport collections. The waitlists and premiums you pay for these watches are, by the data, justified — you are buying into a category that has consistently created value for buyers.
Buy pre-owned from brands that depreciate heavily — Hublot, Panerai, Piaget, Bvlgari. These brands produce excellent watches that lose 25-30% from retail, creating opportunities for secondary market buyers to acquire genuine manufacture-quality timepieces at significant discounts. A pre-owned Bvlgari Octo Finissimo at $0.74 per retail dollar is one of the best specifications-per-dollar propositions in luxury watches.
The "middle tier" brands — Tudor, Cartier, Grand Seiko, Omega — offer the best combination of brand recognition, quality, and acceptable depreciation. They return $0.83–$0.93 per dollar, meaning a relatively modest 7-17% loss from retail. These watches deliver genuine luxury watch experiences without the steep losses of fashion-positioned brands.
This research was produced by WatchValueScore, an independent luxury watch analysis platform. Our dataset covers 116 current-production watches across 21 brands, with pricing data aggregated from public secondary market sources. We maintain no commercial relationships with any watch brand and receive no compensation that influences our analysis. Full methodology is published at watchvaluescore.com/methodology.
For press inquiries, data licensing, or citation requests: [email protected]
Suggested citation: WatchValueScore Research, "The $1 Test: What Every Luxury Watch Brand Returns on the Secondary Market," February 2026. Available at watchvaluescore.com/research/.
Every data point in this study links to a detailed watch page with Value Score breakdowns, cost of ownership calculations, and interactive buying tools.