We believe you should understand exactly how our metrics are calculated. This page documents every formula, data source, and assumption behind WatchValueScore's analysis.
The Value Score is a weighted composite of five factors, each scored independently on a 0-100 scale. The final score is the sum of each factor multiplied by its weight. We chose these weights based on what matters most to a buyer considering long-term value.
Measures how well the watch holds its value on the secondary market relative to its purchase price over a 5-year period. This is the most heavily weighted factor because it directly impacts your cost of ownership. Calculation: we analyze the ratio of current market price to retail MSRP, with adjustments for historical price trends specific to each reference. Watches trading significantly above retail score highest; watches with steep depreciation score lowest.
Quantifies the brand's overall market positioning, consumer recognition, and demand stability. Brands with consistently strong secondary market demand, broad collector interest, and cultural cachet score highest. This factor uses a fixed brand-level score that is reviewed and updated annually based on market data, auction results, and industry analysis. Rolex (98/100) and Patek Philippe (97/100) lead this category.
Evaluates the technical merit of the watch relative to its price tier: movement type and origin (in-house vs outsourced), accuracy certification level, power reserve, water resistance, case materials, and finishing quality. This factor is calibrated against category peers — a dive watch is compared against other dive watches, not against dress watches.
Measures how easily you can buy or sell the watch on the secondary market. Factors include the volume of active listings across major platforms, typical time-to-sell, and geographic breadth of buyer interest. High liquidity means you can exit your position quickly and at fair market value — important for any asset. Rolex sport models score highest here, while niche brand complications score lowest.
Assesses the features and quality you receive per dollar spent, benchmarked against the competitive set. A watch offering in-house movement, 300m water resistance, and ceramic bezel at $5,000 scores higher than one offering similar specs at $15,000. This factor serves as a counterbalance to brand premium — ensuring that objectively good-value watches are recognized even if their brand scores lower on other factors.
The annual cost of ownership is calculated using three components:
Depreciation (or appreciation): Based on the historical price trajectory of each reference and brand. Watches trading above retail with consistent demand are modeled at -1.3% annual depreciation (i.e., 1.3% appreciation). Watches trading near retail use 2% depreciation. Watches trading below retail use 6% depreciation. These rates are calibrated against 5-year historical data for each brand tier.
Servicing: Each brand has a recommended service interval and typical service cost. We amortize the full service cost evenly across the recommended interval. For example, a Rolex service costs approximately $800 with a 10-year recommended interval, yielding $80/year. Patek Philippe services are more expensive but maintain longer intervals.
Insurance: Calculated at 1.5% of market value per year, which reflects prevailing rates from specialty watch insurers for an all-risk policy covering theft, loss, and accidental damage.
The net annual cost equals: (market price × depreciation rate) + amortized service cost + insurance − any appreciation. For watches that appreciate, the appreciation offsets other costs, sometimes dramatically — which is why some luxury watches cost less per year to own than mid-range watches with higher depreciation.
Market price ranges are compiled from public listings across major secondary market platforms including dealer listings, auction results, and peer-to-peer marketplaces. We track asking prices weighted over a 30-day rolling window for each reference. Prices reflect complete sets (watch, box, papers) in excellent condition unless otherwise noted. Retail MSRP prices are sourced directly from brand official price lists.
Price history charts are generated from historical price data points. Early-period data for recently released models includes estimated projections based on comparable references within the same brand and collection.
Market price ranges: updated monthly. Value Scores: recalculated quarterly. Brand strength scores: reviewed annually. Cost of ownership models: updated when service pricing or insurance rates change materially. New references are added to the database on an ongoing basis.
WatchValueScore provides estimates for informational purposes only. Actual transaction prices vary by dealer, condition, provenance, geographic market, and negotiation. Past price performance does not guarantee future results — the luxury watch market is subject to economic cycles, brand management decisions, and shifts in consumer preference. We are not financial advisors and our analysis should not be construed as investment advice. Always verify prices with the seller and conduct your own due diligence before purchasing.